Drifting Into Oblivion: Canada's Potential Disappearance From History

By: Alex Nicolo

I recently came across someone commenting on Trump’s foreign policy actions, saying, “The world isn’t a jigsaw puzzle.” But the truth is, it is. Right now, we’re witnessing a shake-up of the global system, with two great protagonists—China and the United States—gearing up for a showdown. Canada finds itself uncomfortably caught in the middle.

Understandably, Canadians have been rattled by the idea, or even the prospect, of annexation by the U.S. On the surface, this might seem like a random act of chaos—but is it? The reality is that the world has always been shaped by military, economic, and social upheavals. It’s in constant flux. For the past 75 years, we’ve been fortunate to live under Pax Americana, a period of remarkable peace and prosperity compared to much of history.

This isn’t new. Every 80–100 years, it seems, we gather around the table to piece together a new global puzzle. In the ancient world, advanced civilizations redrew boundaries time and again: Babylonia under Nebuchadnezzar, Persia with Darius the “King of Kings,” Egypt’s Thutmose III, China’s Huang, Macedonia’s Alexander the Great, and Rome’s Scipio, Caesar, and Augustus. Each empire swallowed countless smaller states—now footnotes in history—forming and reforming the puzzle in their wake.

When Rome “fell” in AD 476, Europe became a sprawling 5,000-piece puzzle. Kingdoms, tribes, towns, and cities were left to fend for themselves. Two major forces—the Christian Church and the Holy Roman Empire, peaking with Charlemagne’s Carolingian Empire—tried to bring cohesion. But external threats persisted. In the 4th and 5th centuries, the Huns, led by Attila, swept in from Central Asia, only to be repelled by a Roman-Visigoth alliance at the Battle of the Catalaunian Plains in 451.

The period from 476 to the Italian Renaissance—often dated to Petrarch’s birth in 1304—spans the Low and Middle Ages, eventually giving way to the Italian and Northern Renaissance. During this time, France, England, and Spain forged their Germanic and Frankish kingdoms into nations, while Italy and Germany remained fragmented into kingdoms and city-states. The dizzying array of shifting flags and borders, compounded by political intrigue between the Holy Roman Empire and the Vatican, saw smaller states swallowed by larger powers—or turned into “51st states,” so to speak.

Wars between states, and even within the Christian Church between Protestants and Catholics, further scrambled the puzzle. Bloody conflicts like the Thirty Years’ War and the Hundred Years’ War turned Europe into a Risk game board. Battles like the seemingly minor Battle of Fornovo in 1495 sealed Italy’s fate, preventing unification and leaving it vulnerable to powers like France. The Venetian and Genoese empires, though Italian, prioritized their eastern trade routes over unity—Venice famously refused a papal call to fight the Ottomans. This realpolitik defined the era from the Renaissance to the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648.

To complicate matters, the Golden Horde—a mix of Turks and Mongols—swept through Europe, redrawing boundaries and leaving a lasting genetic and cultural imprint across Eurasia. Exhausted by war, pestilence, and the costs of global expansion, Europe reached a turning point with the Peace of Westphalia. Ending the Thirty Years’ War, it rebalanced global affairs—a precursor to 19th-century realpolitik—that held until 1918. Within this “balance of power” framework, more puzzle pieces shifted.

The 19th century introduced the United States as a rising power. Imperial giants like France and Britain clung to their fading empires, while newly unified nations like Germany and Italy sought their “place in the sun.” The scramble for Africa heightened tensions, culminating in 1914. The Great War, followed by World War II, redrew the global map yet again—creating Yugoslavia and Israel, while leaving old grievances like Alsace-Lorraine and South Tyrol dormant but unresolved. Russia’s sphere, from Crimea to Ukraine, remains a territorial flashpoint. Borderlands, it seems, are always one dispute away from upheaval.

Post-war, Pax Americana emerged, not unlike the Pax Romana of the 1st century—a “golden age” of peace and prosperity across the Roman Empire, as Edward Gibbons observed. Pax Americana secured the West’s stability, with Canada as a prime beneficiary. Yet, like all before it, its arc follows history’s pattern.

What are the possible scenarios and outcomes for Canada in the context laid out above?

1. Semi-Sovereign Status – Canada collaborates with the United States on national security issues, restoring a good neighbor policy. However, the perception of Canadians as a threat has shifted. The U.S. is signaling that the pieces of the puzzle are being rearranged, with a renewed focus on national security—a focus Canada has chosen to either ignore or not take seriously. In doing so, Canada maintains its semi-sovereign status.

2. Annexation – The U.S. is unlikely to tolerate a belligerent or uncooperative neighbor on its borders that threatens its national security. With one failing state already flanking it, the U.S. cannot afford a second. Canada is rapidly sliding toward becoming the West’s next failed narco-state. In response, America could propose—or impose—outright annexation, a move consistent with historical precedents where a stronger power absorbs a weaker one.

3. Provincial Secession – Provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, which economically compete with American states, could form a union and apply for statehood.

4. Laurentian Resistance – Ontario and Quebec, the core of the Laurentian elite, would likely resist, unwilling to see their dominance over Canadian affairs challenged. However, the departure of two wealthy provinces could create significant problems for them.

5. North American Union – A long-circulating theory, this concept envisions Canada joining a "Fortress America," adopting the U.S. dollar and passport while retaining autonomy—so long as it poses no threat to American national security.

Colony of China

Some argue that America’s saber-rattling stems from alarm over China’s growing influence—not only in Europe and at the Panama Canal but especially in Canada, where it appears most entrenched. The U.S. national security apparatus has been warning allies about this for years, a concern echoed as recently as the Biden administration. CSIS whistleblowers have alleged that the number of compromised Canadian MPs is not 11 but closer to 50—nearly 15% of Parliament.

Canada has become a hub for criminal activity through the ports of Montreal and Vancouver notably involving the Chinese Triads and Mexican cartels in British Columbia. Canadian law enforcement seems either unable or unwilling to tackle the issue. For example, the RCMP announced two major drug busts—one the largest in Canadian history—yet arrested only one person. The Hogue Commission, intended to investigate, has done little to address this existential threat to Canadian sovereignty, appearing more like a whitewash than a solution.

The Canadian government has not demonstrated sufficient resolve to counter these issues, risking isolation from its allies—an irony given its stated desire for closer ties with Europe. If Europe perceives Canada as weak, it too may view it as a security risk. Much depends on American diplomacy and its ability to convince Europe that allowing further Chinese dominance is not in its interest. As it stands, the United States and other Five Eyes partners have stopped sharing critical intelligence with Canada, deeming it unreliable. This erosion of trust likely contributed to the U.S., UK, and Australia forming AUKUS, effectively sidelining Canada from the alliance.

Canada has shown little interest in strengthening its Charter, which provides weaker civil rights protections than many Western constitutions, particularly the U.S. Constitution. For example, the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms does not explicitly guarantee property rights. In contrast, the U.S. Constitution offers stronger protections for individual rights and ensures greater judicial independence.

Nor does Canada appear willing to address the exposed flaws in its parliamentary system or the pressing need to reduce inter-provincial trade barriers, which are vital for a major economy. For instance, as long as Quebec maintains its anti-fossil fuel stance, it will remain at odds with resource-rich Alberta. A country dependent on natural resources cannot sustain itself under such internal conflict, especially amid the current global rebalancing.

Where does this leave us? Canada, stuck between competing foreign superpowers, is more a “geographic expression” than a real player. Pax Americana is being reformed. The question is: do we want in or out?

Whatever we think of the U.S. or Trump, their actions aren’t an exception in the broader historical context. They’re the rule.

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About the author:

Alex Nicolo is a founding member of Fearless Canada and previously published op-eds and articles under the pseudonym, Alex P. Keaton.